Japan’s January 2026 Tourism Falls as China Stays Away

Japan’s inbound tourism fell in January 2026, with about 3.6 million international visitors—down 4.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. The drop matters because it breaks a long run of steady growth after border rules eased, following a record year in 2025. One important detail is timing: Lunar New Year rush moved to mid-February in 2026, so some holiday travel likely shifted out of January.

A China slump tied to tensions, not just seasonality

The biggest driver was a sharp fall in arrivals from China, down 61 percent in January to about 385,300, after a 45 percent drop in December. Reuters linked the decline to strained relations and Beijing urging citizens to avoid travel to Japan after comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, tied to Taiwan tensions. This kind of “don’t travel” messaging can reduce group tours, push airlines to rethink capacity, and shift Chinese holiday trips to other countries even if there is no formal ban.

Korea is filling seats, but spending risk remains

Japan is not losing all demand—travel is rotating to other markets. Visitors from South Korea rose 22 percent to about 1.18 million (a monthly record for any single country), while Taiwan and the United States also increased; Hong Kong declined. For the travel industry, the worry is the revenue mix: China has been one of Japan’s most valuable visitor segments, so fewer Chinese travelers can still drive shopping, tours, and some hotel areas more than the total arrivals number suggests.

This matters even more because the baseline was so strong: Japan welcomed a record 42.7 million international visitors in 2025, showing how big the market was before the January 2026 slowdown.

Photo by Jezael Melgoza on Unsplash