Europe’s Airline Crisis Shifts from Cost Pain to Flight Cuts

Europe could start seeing flight disruptions within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, after International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on April 17 that the region has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left.

The warning adds a new risk for travel companies. Until now, the main concern was higher airfare costs. Now the industry is also facing the possibility of fuel supply problems that could affect schedules and fares.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to European aviation

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. The US Energy Information Administration says nearly 20 percent of global oil supply usually passes through it. When flows through the strait are disrupted, oil markets tighten and fuel becomes more expensive and harder to move.

Around 40 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports are linked to Hormuz routes. So even though the disruption is happening far from Europe, it can still affect European airlines through tighter supply, higher costs, and more competition for available fuel.

Airlines are already starting to react

The industry is not waiting for a confirmed shortage to make changes. KLM said it will cancel 160 European flights over the next month because of rising fuel costs. The airline said there is no physical shortage affecting its own operations right now, but the move shows how quickly airlines can start cutting capacity when fuel costs rise sharply.

European airlines are also asking Brussels to prepare emergency support measures. Airlines for Europe called for closer monitoring of jet fuel inventories and other steps to help carriers manage the crisis.

Recent airline moves show the fuel risk is already spreading

This risk is no longer showing up in just one airline or one market. In recent weeks, SAS said it would cancel around 1,000 flights in April after fuel prices surged, Vietnam warned that flights may need to be reduced as jet fuel supplies come under pressure, and United said the Iran conflict was likely to hit profits even while demand remained strong.

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