Canadian Trips to the US Kept Falling in February as Demand Stayed Weak

Canadian travel to the US remained under pressure in February 2026, extending a decline that has now lasted more than a year.

Statistics Canada said return trips by Canadian residents from the US fell 12.9 percent by car and 17.6 percent by air compared with February 2025. For car travel, this was the 13th straight month of year-over-year declines.

The February drop was not as severe as the sharp fall reported in January, but it still showed that cross-border demand has not recovered. The pattern now looks like a sustained slowdown rather than a short-term change in travel behavior.

Survey data points to continued weakness

A Flight Centre Canada study found that 62 percent of Canadians said they were less likely to visit US destinations in 2026 than they were a year earlier.

Among baby boomers, the figure rose to 76 percent. Only 8 percent said they were more likely to travel to the US.

Mexico is gaining as Canadians look elsewhere

Mexico is one of the clearest beneficiaries of that shift. Official Mexican aviation data showed strong growth on Canadian routes to Cancún.

Traffic on the Toronto–Cancún route rose 26.1 percent, making it the busiest international route to Mexico in that dataset.

Air Canada’s latest schedule move supports that trend. The airline said it would increase summer 2026 seat capacity to Mexico by 18 percent from a year earlier, adding more service to destinations including Cancún, Guadalajara, Mexico City, Monterrey, and Puerto Vallarta.

Airlines are adjusting, and there is still no sign of a rebound

Airline network decisions show that the market is taking the decline seriously. Air Transat said it would end Orlando and Fort Lauderdale service for the summer 2026 season, leaving it with no US flights. Other carriers have also reduced some transborder flying.

The latest Canada–US travel slowdown fits a wider weakness in inbound demand for the US travel market. Recent industry data has shown that the US has been losing momentum with international visitors, while airlines and travelers increasingly shift attention to alternative destinations.

That makes the Canadian decline more than a bilateral travel story. It also reflects a broader competitive challenge for the US as other markets capture demand that might once have gone south of the border.

Photo by Kylie Anderson on Unsplash